Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Thursday through the Weekend

Overview

An upper level ridge will keep conditions dry over the next couple of days, but winds will be more marginal, with fire weather conditions mainly being elevated. Late in the week and through the weekend, fire weather concerns will steadily increase due to a threat of isolated dry thunderstorms followed by breezy/windy conditions. Confidence is HIGH that elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be experienced over the weekend.

*Please take note of our new fire weather decision support page (see the link at the bottom of this email)*

Main Takeaways

A period of stronger winds is expected along the Rocky Mountain Front, especially late Friday through Sunday (this wind event looks very similar, if not a bit stronger, than the wind event this past weekend with wind gusts in excess of 30 mph likely)

A period of breezy conditions over the weekend across the plains of central Montana

Continued dry conditions with min RH values of 15-25% each day (with single digit RH values in several locations)

Poor to moderate overnight recovery

Confidence

Sustained winds exceeding 30 mph late Friday through Sunday (Rocky Mountain Front area) = HIGH

Wind gusts reaching 45 to 55 mph late Friday through Sunday (Rocky Mountain Front area) = MODERATE

Meeting critical fire weather conditions over the weekend (areawide) = MODERATE to HIGH

Potential for a widespread precipitation event in the next 7 to 10 days  = LOW

Fire Weather Decision Support Page - http://www.weather.gov/tfx/firesupport